Continue reading »]]> After my first post on the race in Edmonton Glenora, I thought I'd follow up with a closer look at a second dynamic in the riding. If reports from the advanced polls are to be believed, Alberta is on track to blow past our turnout numbers from 2008. As only 40% of voters decided to cast a ballot, this won't take that much of an improvement. If we see turnout jump to 50%, this will still be a significant portion of the population about whom we have little information about their previous electoral decisions. 

As a general rule, for most voters, past behavior tends to be the best predictor of future behavior. If you cast a ballot for party X, you will likely cast a ballot for party X in the next election. Not a perfect summary, but true for most people, most of the time. For voters who didn't cast a ballot in 08, their behavior is hard to predict, as many made an active decision to stay home. We can offer guesses as to the reason they chose to stay home, but we can't know for sure. 

As 60%+ cast ballots in the federal election in May 2011, we can use GIS to identify the differences in turnout from 08-11. This will help identify specific polls with unpredictable electoral behavior. The 20%+ voters in Edmonton Glenora who chose not to cast a ballot will be up for grabs by the parties. With five solid candidates, this would be an excellent way to identify growth areas for each of the individual parties. 

I've mapped out the turnout for the polls comprising the new Edmonton Glenora for the 2008 provincial election, and the 2011 federal election, and determined voter turnout. From this, the polls were matched (as best possible)  to create a point of comparison. 

The map on the left shows the turnout differential for the two campaigns mapped to the 2012 polls. Two polls, one being a high density point, probably a new condo tower, and one in the eastern edge of the riding had higher turnouts provincially than federally. This often happens in strong provincial polls, but areas that are overlooked by the federal parties. In this case, these two polls had the highest provincial turnouts in 08 for their respective ridings. 

Of particular note are the polls with the largest voter differentials on the eastern and south western edges of the riding. These polls offer the largest room for growth if properly mobilized. The high-differential polls on the eastern edge fall in areas with favourable NDP demographics, and areas that were won by the NDP in Fed 11. The areas with the lowest differentials were the areas won by the PCAA in 08. 

The areas in the southwest were areas of weaker PC support, but strong CPC support. If these areas are mobilized, this could be beneficial for either the WR or the PC party. If WR does pull the 57% of previous PC voters (Forum, Abacus), they can ruin the PCs chance of holding this seat. The big question will be how the collapse of Liberal Party support will be redistributed. If these voters break NDP, and the NDP can match their Fed 11 showing, I'd put my money on their taking this seat. 

Either way, this will be a riding to watch. 

Continue reading »]]> There has been a fair bit of discussion as to the proper use of opinion polling during this campaign, so I thought I'd weigh in with a few quick comments. While I won't profess to be an expert on the topic, there are a few points I wanted to offer regarding the use of the two different baseline samples. 

I saw this on Twitter, so I'm not sure who is using the CMAs, and who is using the City limits, but the two areas would have very different electoral characteristics. The Calgary Census Metropolitan Area extends west to the edge of Bragg Creek, NW to Cochrane,  east to Chestemere, and includes various other small bedroom communities. I'm not as familiar with the Edmonton CMA, but I imagine it may include communities such as St Albert, Stony Plain, Sherwood Park, etc 

The important point to note with the Calgary CMA is that the surrounding bedroom communities tend to be higher income, and tend to be far more conservative in their political views. Bragg Creek may be an exception, as communities closer to the mountains tend to vote Green, but that is a point for another post. 

If a pollster takes a sample including these communities, there is a far better chance that more conservative political parties would show stronger than woudl be the case with just the City of Calgary. I was curious to see exactly what the different breakdown would be, so I extracted the results from my 2008 database for every poll that fell within the current Calgary boundaries, and every poll that fell within the Calgary CMA boundaries. Here are the breakdowns.

Calgary CMA

Thie breakdown is quite different for the polls in the City of Calgary by itself. 

Note: These numbers are built of the 2012 Calgary city limits. These numbers include polls that would have been 'rural' in 2008. 

While the numbers don't look overly different, the added 2-3% support for the two conservative parties could make a difference in a regional sample of only 300 respondents. The polls using the CMA would likely over predict WR support for Calgary proper, and under predict Center left support. 

Continue reading »]]> After a couple of rather nasty weeks at school, I finally have another opportunity to sit down and write. My previous posts have offered basic electoral maps, but I thought I'd take a few moments to discuss the potential of GIS tools for electoral analysis. In 2010, the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission finished redrawing the province's constituencies. While this process is not nearly as contentious as in the US, it still poses significant challenges for people wanting to compare results across elections. For political scientists and amateur politicos alike, the 2012 Alberta Provincial Election will be worth watching for a variety of reasons.

The academic literature both on redistricting and political behavior indicates that electoral results in redistricted polls and precincts tends to be more volatile. As numerous ridings in both Calgary and Edmonton have seen significant restructuring of their boundaries, the effects of incumbency may be reduced. The new electoral boundaries of Edmonton Glenora include the vast majority of the old riding, but add a section of Edmonton Calder to the northern boundary. The riding has been heavily contested in the last two decades, and has moved between parties 4 times since 1993.

In 2008, MLA Heather Klimchuk narrowly defeated incumbent Bruce Miller by a slim 96 votes, and the riding is expected to be won by a similar margin in 2012. With a few days left in the campaign, I thought this would be a good time to offer a look at a few heavily contested ridings. The integration of GIS data into this analysis allows us to analyze the electoral characteristics of the new Edmonton Glenora district at both the provincial and the federal levels, and some insight into the relationship between electoral dynamics at different levels. 

For this post, I've remapped the 2008 provinical election results and the 2011 federal results on to the 2012 boundaries. I ran some quick summations to determine the total number of votes cast for each party for the two campaigns. The results are included in Table 1. 

A preliminary look offers two very interesting conclusions. Everything else being equal, under the new boundaries, the provincial Liberal candidate would have won the seat with a margin of just under 400 votes. This would of course assume that the Liberals match their 2008 performance, which at this point seems rather unlikely. the second point, and the point that jumps out is the the combined votes cast for the center right and center left parties. Provincially in 2008, just over 7,600 votes were cast for the center-left parties, and about 7,600 votes were cast federally for center left parties. Green vote remained cost, but the NDP had a far stronger showing provincially than federally. Given the orange surge, this isn't suprising. The most surpising point is the number of center right votes cast, 4,500 and 7,240. For the areas encompassing Edmonton Glenora, 2,700 voters were willing to cast a ballot for the Federal Conservative Party, but did not vote in the provincial campaign. 

The flexibility of center left support could be indicative of weak partisan attachhment, a point well established by numerous studies, including the CES. The explanation for the missing 'conservative' voters is harder to explain. Without the electoral breakdowns from the 2012 camapign, I'm not yet willing to venture a guess. Either way, this point could be a significant wildcard and a factor in numerous races. 

The electoral maps offer insight into the possible changing geographic distribution of voter support.  The map on the left shows the winner of each PSD, as well as vote percentages for the three major provincial parties. The NDP showed strongly in the north of the new riding, the Liberals in the south, and the PCs in the north and the west.  The strength of the NDP in the areas pulled from Edmonton Calder will be interesting, as areas which have been moved during redistricting are more likely to buck riding wide trends. But, as the NDP does not hold the seat, it will be worth watching how these polls perform. The PCs had a few strong polls in the south east of the riding, and could see a bump if the Liberal voters are drawn to Redford. 

The collapse of federal Liberal support in Edmonton can been seen in the second map, which shows results from 2011. The LPC won just two polls, and fared weakly every but the deep south of the riding. The NDP showed strongly in key areas of ALP support from 08. The CPC showed strongly in the north of the riding, even in areas that voted strongly NDP in the 2008 provincial race. 

Points to Consider:

If the NDP is able to build on their momentum from the 2011 federal campaign, they are a serious contender to win this seat.  This is complicated by the rise of the Alberta Party, and the collapse of the ALP. If Redford is able to draw ALP voters in the south of the riding, she may be able to make up for CPC voters breaking to the Wildrose. The Alberta Party could be a dark horse, as Sue Huff is a strong candidate, and should do well in the riding, due to lasting connections to the community. 

If WR does draw missing Conservative voters and match CPC geographic trends, they may pull strong support in the western section of the riding and weaken the PCs to have a serious shot at winning this seat. With WR showing at around 20% in Edmonton, and a splintered left of center vote, this seat could be won with a plurality of under 25%. 

When the polls close on Monday, this will a race to watch. 

- Justin

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It has been a busy week with various other projects, it seems this blog is becoming a productive way to procrastinate on school. That being said, I've completed the rest of the Toronto Danforth mapping:

At first glance, there doesn't appear to be any significant change between 2008 and 2011 in NDP vote support, but the initial visual is deceiving. The two maps are built on different vote scales, so the darker orange on the 2011 map is at least 10% stronger support than in 08.  An initial qualitative assessment would conclude that the support patterns are largely inverted to the LPC, indicated that gains in Danforth in 2011 came at the expense of the Liberal Party. As Elections Canada will likely be using the same polls for the ByElection, this provides an opportunity for use to quantify a possible vote shift back to the Libs. A northward march for the NDP, and a southward march for the CPC may leave the LPC with nowhere left to go. 

The strongest growth areas can be seen on the western edge of the riding, and on the eastern edge, about halfway up. I wish I had the demographics broken down for the ridings, because that growth is definitely on the upper edge of the curve. I'd be curious as to the demographic classes which saw an above average break for the NDP. Floating center left voters may be valuable in the coming years. For those with a statistical inclination, ByElections are great opportunities to explore electoral dynamics, as you can run calculations using identical poll numbers. If I survive this semester, Danforth will be a fun race to examine indepth. 

Continue reading »]]> Julian Fantino's recent musings about delaying Canada's order of the F-35 has garnered significant media attention. I had no intention of writing about this topic until I saw a National Post piece from this morning. Matt Gurney emphasized the need for Canada to have a Plan B for a replacement for the CF-18 fleet, should the F-35 order fall through. The article can be found here. While the F-35 represents the first 5th-gen fighter available for non-US buyers, the practicality of the purchase has long been criticized due to the steep price tag associated with the planes. Matt Gurney cuts to the point and asks simply, what are the other options? I've always had an interest in the RCAF, so I thought I'd attempt an answer. 

There have been two major international areal procurement processes in the last few years, and they offer a great starting point for answering this question. The development of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) represents the largest exercise in joint military development in human history, and has been criticized for the attached price tag. As the cost per plane for the JSF rises, more and more countries have withdrawn, or reduced orders of the plane.

The other major procurement process was the recently completed MRCA deal, in which India sought to replace its aging Mig 21 and Mig 23 fighters with ~130 medium range fighter aircraft. Originally purchased from the Soviet Union, the lifespan of the planes are near their end, and an increasing accident rate hastened the need for replacements. While not acknowledged publically, the various defence think thanks in India have emphasizes the necessity of upgrading its fighter fleet to counter a rapidly arming China. The MRCA is intended to fill a gap between the retirement of the existing fleet, and the deployment of the  LCA Tejas and possibly the 5th gen T-50, developed jointly with Russia. 

The significance of the MRCA is two fold. It represents the first major Indian procurement open to bidding from all suppliers, and it offers a chance to assess the leading 4th and 4+ generation aircraft currently on the market: 

The Eurofighter Typhoon:

The Typhoon is jointly developed by a group of European corporations, and is in service by many of our NATO allies. The aircraft saw extensive service in Libya, and has recieved favourable reports from senior US defence officials. While hard to compare to the F-22, the aircraft is believed to be well suited for a ground attack role, despite being listed as a multi-role fighter. Cost per unit: 90 million Euros.

The Saab JAS 39 – Gripen

Developed by Sweden, the Gripen toes the line between 4th and 4+ generation fighters. Originally introduced in 1997, the plane is used by South Africa, and numerous countries is Central Europe. Despite being the cheapest fighter in the competition, the Grippen may just be the most durable. Designed as a counter to a possible Soviet invasion, the plane is designed for use in Arctic conditions, short runways, and rapid turnaround. Despite being an older option, the short turnaround times and wide combat radius make this a tempting option for Arctic patrols. Cost per unit: $40-60 million USD

The Rafale

Developed by the French as a replacement for the aging Mirage 2000, the Rafale won the MRAC competition after impressive performances in both Libya and Afghanistan. The aircraft was used in a close support role in Afghanistan, and an SEAD role in Libya. While currently only operated by the French, the Rafale has been considered by Kuwait, Brazil and the UAE as a replacement for US manufactured F-16 and F-18 fleets. A variety of specifications are available, depending on the needs of the importer. The combat radius of the Rafale is nearly double that of the Gripen and the Eurofighter. Cost per unit: $80-120 million.

The Mig 35 

Still in the later stages of development, the Mig 35 is an overhaul to the Mig 29, a major Russian military export. The plane has not yet reached front-line service, but has been lauded for versatility. The challenges of interoperability with our NATO allies makes this an unlikely outcome. Cost per unit: Unknown

The F-22 Raptor

The Raptor has been praised as the best fighter currently in service world wide. Despite significant cost overruns, the fighter has proven effective in a variety of combat situations. While this plane would be an excellent fit for Canadian requirements, the US has halted production, and refused to lift an export ban on the plane. Cost per unit: $120 million

The F-18E/F Super Hornet

The Super Hornet represents the most recent in the line of upgrades to the F-18 Hornets. As the RCAF is already familiar with the structure and operational capabilities of the CF-18, the transition process would be simplified. While the spare parts and logistical support necessary for the F-18E/F variants is not identifcal, this represents a significant benefit. Despite weaker specs than the Rafale and Eurofighters, the plane is an upgrade on the existing fleet, and was chosen by Australia to act as a gap-filler while they wait for the delivery of the JSF.  Cost per unit: $55 million

I am in no way qualified to comment on the applicability of these planes for Canadian requirements, but I will say that the final choice for Canada's next generation fighter should say a fair bit about the long term projections for the RCAF. If Canada is intending to focus on the Arctic, expect a plan with a larger combat radius, and shorter intercept times. If Canada is expecting more missions in the mould of Libya, expect an aircraft with a ground attack focus. The F-35 is designed to be the best at everything, and to reduce the logistical challenges associated with multiple fighter variants, but it may not be suited to the roles Canada may seek to fill in the next decades. Regardless of the final decision, I look forward to spirited discussions regarding Canadian foreign policy, and the role of the the Canadian Forces. 

Updated:

After a request from a colleague, I've added a map of the Arctic, showing the effective combat ranges of the three variations of the F-35. These are 900, 1200, and 1,400nmi. Should Canada seek to focus on sovereignty patrols, the ECR provices a very basic visual of the range of these aircraft. 

Continue reading »]]> I'm currently on my way back home from a conference in Ottawa, so I thought I'd take the chance to add one more post about Toronto-Danforth race and the implications for Canadian politics. I was watching the NDP leadership debates earlier in the day, and I was struck by what appear to be irreconcilable differences in opinions between many of the candidates.

We can't really compare it to any of the previous Liberal Party races in that the LPC wasn't really seeking a radically different direction for the party. The conventions that elected Dion and Ignatieff didn't touch on the core orthodoxies of the Liberal Party, rather they focused on a few largely aesthetic policy planks.  I don't care what you think of Layton or his legacy, the question of co-operation will be the one which determines the course of Canadian politics in this decade.  The next couple years will determine whether the NDP fade back to third party irrelevence, or remain as the primary left-wing alternative to the CPC in a polarized 2+ party system.

I had the chance to observe an extended back and forth on Facebook between some friends in the NDP, and a few points jumped out.  

1. The activists in the party are not excited about the prospects of cooperation.
2. There is minimal divergence in important policy issues, except cooperation/moderation.
3. The power brokers in the party are very much in favour of a unified campaign, and the possibility of government.
4. The perspective that the Liberals are as bad as the Tories still holds. 
5. A merger will only go forward as long as the NDP hold a position of power

For those of us on the opposite side of the spectrum, this might envoke memories of the heated discussions surrounding the 2003 PC leadership race where the question of a merger with the Canadian Alliance loomed over the heads of delegates. Brison and Orchard were both openly hostile to the idea of a merger with the CA, while MacKay was willing to discuss cooperation, similar to Cullen.

Had Jim Prentice achieved stronger support on the first and second ballots, he may have been up against MacKay, and his willingness to merge the parties may have allowed him to win on the third ballot. A Harper Prentice merger may have resulted in a different face and structure to the party, and limited the fortures of the new CPC in the maritimes. 

A second Harper majority in 2015 may make a merger on the left inevitable, but it is far too soon to say. It took two horrendous showings in general elections to push the parties of the right to unite, and it may take a similar push to unify parties on the left.

Toronto Danforth contains significant proportions of the core demographic clusters which key to the success of the NDP and Liberal parties in Ontario and British Columbia. If the Liberal Party can make significant gains in key parts of this riding, it may indicate a gradual recovery of key voter groups from the NDP. Regardless of the result, the TorDan election offers a fascinating side story to the NDP leadership race. 
 

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With another two weeks to go before the Toronto Danforth byelection, there has been some speculation as to the possibility of the seat changing hands back to the Liberals. While I am skeptical of this claim, I thought it would be worth examining in a bit more depth.The riding voted Liberal throughout the 1990s before being won by  deceased NDP leader Jack Layton in 2004. As a Ryerson professor and city councillor, Layton made a name for himself in Toronto politics, but lacked the widespread recognition common with federal politicians. 

He took the leadership of the NDP handily in 2003, and but won by a slim 2,400 votes his first race in Danforth. Despite only moderate gains for the NDP, Layton was able to increase his margin of victory in each passing election. Even after his passing, Jack's legacy remains a key factor in the future of the NDP. By the strength of his personality, and the frustration of Quebec voters with the BQ, he led the party to a spectacular breakthrough in the province. The Danforth election may offer a glimpse into the future of a Layton-less NDP party. Layton consistently outperformed his party both in Toronto and Ontario, and represents one of the best examples of personality driven support. 

The collapse of the Liberal Party in the 2011 election could be seen in ridings across the country. Ignatieff's failure to connect with Canadian voters resulted in significant support bleeding to the New Democrats, a trend apparent at both riding and poll level analyses. In Toronto Danforth, significant pockets of Liberal support in 2008 failed to materialize in 2011. The strong clusters of support in the north and western edge of Danforth were but a shadow of their former selves, in many cases returning Liberal vote totals of less than 15%. 

The polls in the northwest did not see any real growth in Conservative support, but rather a spike in support for the NDP. The overall vote for center left parties remained constant in many of the NW polls without any change in turnout. 

From this, we can assume that soft Liberal support broke for Jack. With the removal of the Ignatieff millstone, and the loss of the a charistmatic NDP leader and local personality, we will see a jump in Liberal support, and gain a case study for the role of star power in Canadian politics. 

If Bob Rae can match 2008 support levels, and voter turnout is subdued in the south and the east, this might be one to watch, but I'm not holding out hope. 

The other few sets of Danforth maps (NDP, CPC, Prov-11) should be up sometime this week, but that'll depend on the workload with school. 

- Justin

Continue reading »]]> Nothing unexpected with Ward 4 in terms of demographic on geographic patterning, but the comparable low deviation in McLeod's support may be an angle worth examining with further research. For the three Wards examined, the winning candidates tended to have lower support deviation in both relative and absolute terms when compared to their peers. Targeted campaigns focusing on geographic areas can win polls, but it seems they do poorly in winning Wards. Unfortunately, without collecting data on the DVC and GOTV done by candidates, it is impossible to quantify. It none-the-less offers a point of consideration for structuring a 2013 municipal campaign.

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Ward 1 offered some very interesting results, and bears further investigation. In 7 of 14 polls, there were more ballots cast in the Aldermanic race (incumbent) than in the Mayoral race (open).  It is extremely rare to see Aldermanic vote totals exceed Mayoral totals, and especially rare in a hotly contested race for an open Mayoral chair. The targetting of DVC and GOTV efforts by the various candidates may likely have played a significant role in the distribution. 

The contrasting geographic distributions of support may speak to the changing face of Calgary. The older (both in age, and duration), established communities closer to the downtown cast ballots for a long time incumbent, but new communities with higher concentrations of younger families cast ballots for younger challengers. Should Dale Hodges step aside in 2013, Ward 1 will definitely be one to watch.